Tag: project overruns

  • Why Traditional Design-Bid-Build Is Failing Large Infrastructure: A Structural Analysis

    The Pattern That Plays Out on Most Large Traditional Contracts

    The owner’s consultant produces a drawing set. The contractor bids on it — lowest price wins. Handshake. Construction starts. Then reality shows up.

    The drawings do not match site conditions. The contractor sends an RFI. The designer takes three weeks to respond. Crews are standing around burning daylight. A change order goes in. The owner pushes back. The contractor files a claim. Lawyers start circling. The project finishes 14 months late and 40% over budget.

    This pattern plays out on most large traditional contracts around the world. Not occasionally. Most. And it’s not because of bad people or incompetent organizations. It is a structural problem — one built into the design of the contract itself.

    Failure Mode 1: Misaligned Incentives

    In a Design-Bid-Build arrangement, the contractor profits by building fast and cheap. The designer’s fee is fixed regardless of how buildable the design is. The owner wanted quality but awarded on lowest price. Everyone optimizes for their own outcome — not the project’s.

    The contractor who wins on lowest price has, by definition, left the least contingency in the estimate. When risks materialize, there is no buffer. The rational response — from the contractor’s perspective — is to recover through change orders and claims. The contract structure created that incentive. Blaming the contractor for using it is like blaming water for flowing downhill.

    The designer, whose fee was set at appointment and who bears no financial consequence for an uncoordinated or unbuildable design, has no financial incentive to invest additional effort in coordination or constructability. Their incentive is to produce drawings that meet the technical standard of care with the resources their fee supports. What happens in the field after the drawings are issued is legally someone else’s problem.

    Failure Mode 2: Late Knowledge Transfer

    The contractor — the party with the most detailed construction knowledge — has zero input during design. By the time they see the drawings, the design is fully developed. Any construction knowledge they could contribute has been locked out by the procurement timeline. Every improvement to buildability after tender requires a change order, which requires approval, which burns time and degrades the owner-contractor relationship.

    This is not just an inefficiency. It is a fundamental misallocation of expertise. The contractor knows how to sequence work safely and efficiently. They know what local labour can actually achieve, which materials are reliably available, where the coordination problems between trades typically emerge. None of that knowledge informs the design, which is developed entirely by a design team whose expertise is technical design — not construction execution.

    Failure Mode 3: Adversarial Risk Allocation

    The traditional contract pushes nearly all risk to the contractor through fixed-price lump sum structures. When risks materialize — site conditions differ from geotechnical assumptions, regulatory changes affect scope, supply chain disruptions delay materials — the only path available to the contractor within the contract framework is to file claims.

    The adversarial dynamic that results is not a failure of professional character. It is the predictable output of a contract structure that gives parties no collaborative mechanism for resolving problems. Every risk event that falls within a grey zone of the contract language becomes a commercial dispute, because that is what the contract designed it to be.

    Failure Mode 4: No Shared Ownership of Outcomes

    When the project fails — and overruns are the norm rather than the exception on large traditional contracts — everyone points in a different direction. The designer blames execution quality. The contractor blames drawing quality. The owner blames both. Nobody owns the outcome because the contract never gave anyone shared ownership of it.

    I have sat on both sides of this table — as a contractor managing rail corridors and highway programs, and as an owner’s representative overseeing billion-dollar transit programs. The adversarial dynamic is not a personality problem. It is a contract design problem. And it has a solution.

    Progressive models do not eliminate disagreements. They create structures where the default response to a problem is to solve it together — not to call a lawyer. That shift matters more than most people in infrastructure delivery yet appreciate.

  • The Construction Industry Has a $1.6 Trillion Problem — And Traditional Contracting Is Making It Worse

    The Productivity Crisis in Construction

    McKinsey’s research on global construction productivity is worth sitting with. Large construction projects typically take 20% longer than planned and run up to 80% over budget. The World Economic Forum puts global construction productivity growth at just 1% annually over the past 20 years — while manufacturing has grown at 3.6% over the same period. The construction industry manages approximately $10 trillion of economic activity annually, and its fundamental inefficiency is one of the most significant and underaddressed productivity problems in the global economy.

    The causes of this underperformance are multiple and interconnected. But one structural factor stands above the others: how we contract.

    What Traditional Contracting Does to Projects

    The Design-Bid-Build model — owner designs, contractor bids lowest price, adversarial relationship ensues — was developed in an era when construction projects were simpler, supply chains were local, and the pace of design development was slow enough that a complete design before bidding was achievable and meaningful.

    None of those conditions reliably apply to large infrastructure programs today. Designs are complex and interdependent. Supply chains span continents. The world changes between schematic design and construction completion in ways that no set of contract documents can fully anticipate.

    The traditional model’s response to this complexity is to push risk onto the contractor through fixed-price lump sum contracting. The assumption is that competition at tender will produce an efficient price, and that forcing the contractor to absorb risk will make them manage it efficiently. In practice, the assumption fails regularly.

    Fixed-price contracting on complex infrastructure does not eliminate risk. It relocates it — to the contractor’s contingency, to the claims and disputes process, and ultimately to the schedule and budget outcomes that the owner cares about most. A contractor who has absorbed risks they cannot manage will not manage them efficiently. They will manage them legally, through change orders and claims that shift liability back to the owner at the worst possible time.

    What Progressive Models Change

    The defining characteristic of progressive contract models — CMAR, Alliance, PDB, ECI, and IPD — is that they bring the contractor into the project before the design is complete, under terms that align their financial interests with project outcomes rather than against them.

    Construction Manager at Risk engages the contractor during design under an open-book preconstruction agreement, culminating in a Guaranteed Maximum Price negotiated on the basis of real cost data rather than competitive desperation. Alliance Contracting creates a single entity from owner, designer, and contractor with a shared risk/reward pool that eliminates the claims dynamic entirely. Progressive Design-Build selects the delivery team on qualifications and develops scope and cost collaboratively before the price is locked. Early Contractor Involvement brings field expertise into planning before the design is committed. Integrated Project Delivery ties the financial outcomes of all parties to the project’s performance against shared targets.

    Each model addresses the same underlying problem — the adversarial, information-poor, incentive-misaligned dynamic of traditional contracting — through a different structural mechanism.

    The Global Shift

    The adoption of progressive models is accelerating globally. Australia pioneered Alliance contracting for infrastructure and has three decades of institutional experience with it. The UK is rebuilding its PPP framework after the political collapse of PFI. Canada has adopted CMAR and Progressive Design-Build for transit delivery, with Metrolinx’s programs among the most ambitious implementations. The GCC is deploying PPP models across 98+ projects in Saudi Arabia alone, with a National Privatization Strategy targeting 220 transactions by 2030.

    The shift is real, and the evidence base supporting it is growing. But the honest version of this story — which I will continue to tell in this series — includes the failure modes. Not every progressive model works in every situation. Picking the wrong model, or applying the right model without the governance, stakeholder readiness, and organizational capability it requires, can produce outcomes worse than traditional contracting.

    The coming weeks of this series will break down each model, examine global case studies of both success and failure, and provide a framework for selecting and implementing progressive contracting in the Saudi and GCC context. This is the honest version. Not the sales pitch.